It’s around this time of year that the pundits of my industry (digital marketing) start predicting what’s going to happen in the next year, 90% of which, let’s face it, is pure vapourware.
Predicting what’s going to happen in digital marketing (or technology, parenting, psychology, or art) over the next 12 months is like trying to predict what telephone conversations are going to be about — you can look at current trends and topics and expect them to continue, but predicting that “Apple is going to build this” or “Facebook Pages will look like that” comes down to little more than hope.
Instead, what we can predict is that people will continue doing what they’ve done.
Smart marketers will continue using amazing new platforms to deliver entertaining campaigns, tool-makers will continue bettering each other in search of the next killer app, and agencies will keep forcing themselves ahead of the curve to come up with new strategies and new products to deliver to their clients.
We’ll all keep failing, having terrible ideas, and spending too much time on things that flop, and 90% of predictions will continue to be wrong.
My job is to think about WHY things went right or wrong, learn from them, adjust my style, improve my approach, and then, hopefully with better accuracy, I’ll be able to predict that I’m going to do better next year.